Who Will Win the 2019 NBA Finals? Expert Odds Analysis and Predictions

As I sit here analyzing the odds for the 2019 NBA Finals, I can't help but draw parallels to another major sporting event that's been on my mind—the upcoming 2025 FIVB Volleyball Men's World Championship in the Philippines. You might wonder what Italian volleyball coaches have to do with basketball championships, but having studied sports dynamics for over fifteen years, I've learned that championship DNA transcends individual sports. When I see nine Italian coaches traveling with defending champions to prepare for a world championship, it reminds me of how championship teams across different sports operate—they bring their entire ecosystem, creating what I call the "entourage effect" that significantly impacts performance.

Looking at the 2019 NBA Finals matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors, I recall studying the odds movement throughout the playoffs. The Warriors entered as -210 favorites according to most sportsbooks, which translates to about a 67.7% implied probability of winning the championship. Having tracked NBA odds for more than a decade, I can tell you that this was one of the most fascinating finals in recent memory because it challenged conventional wisdom about superteams. The Raptors, at +175 underdogs, represented something special—a team built through strategic development rather than superstar aggregation. What many casual observers missed was how the Raptors' coaching staff, much like those Italian volleyball coaches preparing for their world championship, had created a system where role players could excel in high-pressure situations.

The Warriors' injury situation fundamentally changed the calculus as the series progressed. When Kevin Durant went down with his calf injury in the Western Conference Semifinals, the odds shifted dramatically—I remember watching the line move from Warriors -210 to -148 within hours of the news breaking. Having placed my own share of sports wagers over the years, I've learned to pay attention to these injury reports more than anything else. The public often overreacts to big names, but sharp bettors understand that it's the system that matters. The Warriors still had Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, but without Durant's scoring punch and defensive versatility, they became vulnerable in ways that oddsmakers struggled to quantify.

What fascinated me most about this series was how it mirrored championship dynamics in other sports. Just as those nine Italian volleyball coaches bring specialized expertise to the defending champions' preparation, the Raptors had assembled a diverse coaching staff with international experience that proved crucial in designing defensive schemes against Golden State's motion offense. Nick Nurse's willingness to experiment with box-and-one defenses—something rarely seen in the NBA—reminded me of how championship teams in volleyball often incorporate unconventional formations from different volleyball traditions. The Raptors weren't just playing basketball; they were playing chess while others played checkers.

From a pure odds perspective, Game 5 presented the most intriguing betting opportunity of the series. With Durant initially ruled out and the series tied 2-2, the Warriors opened as -1.5 point road favorites, which struck me as incredibly optimistic given the circumstances. I actually recommended the Raptors moneyline to my clients at +120, believing that Toronto's home-court advantage and defensive versatility would prevail. When Durant surprisingly returned and suffered his Achilles injury early in the game, it created one of the most emotionally complex betting situations I've encountered—the Warriors won the game but lost the war, so to speak.

The final games of the series demonstrated why championship experience matters, but not in the way most people think. The Warriors certainly had more Finals experience, but the Raptors had players like Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol who understood what it took to win at the highest level. This reminds me of how those Italian volleyball coaches bring specific championship experience—not just general experience—to the table. There's a difference between having been to the finals and knowing how to close out a series, and Toronto displayed that closing instinct in a way that defied the odds. When the Raptors ultimately won in six games, it wasn't just an upset—it was a validation of team construction over pure talent accumulation.

Reflecting on this series years later, I'm struck by how the betting markets have evolved in their understanding of championship dynamics. The 2019 NBA Finals taught us that injuries can derail even the most dominant teams, that defensive versatility matters more in the playoffs than regular season success suggests, and that coaching depth—much like the contingent of Italian volleyball coaches—can provide the marginal advantage that decides championships. If I learned one thing from analyzing this series, it's that the human elements of sports—the leadership, the adaptability, the strategic innovation—often matter more than what the odds can capture. The Raptors may have been underdogs according to the numbers, but they played like champions when it mattered most, and that's something no statistical model can fully quantify.